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Russian Investment in Commerical Real Estate in Context of a Worldwide Liquidity Crisis

25.03.2008

Representatives from leading developers, funds and banking institutions operating in Russia remain cautiously bullish over the outlook for Russian property markets, according to yesterday"s panel discussion: "Russian Investment in Commerical Real Estate in Context of a Worldwide Liquidity Crisis: A Harbor in the Storm?" hosted by the Russian Guild of Managers and Developers and moderated by Val Jerdes, Director of Advisory for Praktis Consulting and Brokerage.

Cameron Sawyer, President of GVA Sawyer and the Rutley Fund suggested now was the right time to sell stablized assets owned by Western institutional investments in Russia, but that "development projects, which constitute most of the current market, are still highly attractive with potential returns of 20-25%" even in view of the increased difficulty in obtaining debt financing from abroad as well as rapidly rising costs of land and construction materials.

Maria Golovanova, Director of Investment for IMG and currently raising a 450 million euro international fund targeting Russian developers agreed, adding that the current pause in Russian developers raising capital through IPOs and a higher cost of debt financing from both Russia and abroad are leading to a "sorting out" of Russian developers, with larger, more established players who are quicker to execute profiting while smaller players doing less well. She announced IMG recently aquiring a 25% equity stake in a St. Petersburg developer, "Okhta Group."

Arthur Markaryan, CEO of Glavstroi, a leading Russian developer and holding of Russian multi-billionaire Deripaska, was optimistic. He cited continued intense demand not only from the private sector but also from the federal government, for whom Glavstroi is currently building over 800,000 square meters of residential properties in Moscow alone, with 20 - 21 million square meters anticipated across Russia in the near- to mid- term. "Even in 1998, when the Russian economy experienced a 5-6 times drop, the residential market value dropped only 25-30%." It is important, he said, to monitor quality of information regarding the markets in Russia to avoid emotion and ensure continued rationality.

Steven Wayne, President of the Jensen Group, a St. Petersburg-based fund, agreed that the Western crisis has certainly affected Russian investment activity, but that the potential of the Russian market is still so vast that such effects are minimal. He compared debt carried by Russians to that of the West: Russians carry $12 billion USD in mortgages, or $67 USD per capita, which at an average monthly per capita income of $680 USD is less than of week"s salary - as opposed to Westerners averaging mortgages of six years income, per capita - a miniscule sum. In commercial office space alone, the 1.1 square meters currently available in St. Petersburg and 7 square meters per capita in Moscow are also tiny when compared to the 25 square meters per capita of London. If considering an average cost of $12.50 USD per square meter, the investment needed to bring just St. Petersburg up to Moscow levels would be $34 billion USD. "In light such figures, the potential for Russian real estate is still virtually untapped," he said. In addition, "the upside of lower leverage possibility in Russia right now is further reduction of perceived risk by Western investors."

Lev Pukshansky, CEO of Morskoi Facade, the largest newly-made land project in Europe forming an island of 440 hecaters on the Gulf of Finland in St. Petersburg, admitted that many of the Western institutions who were clearly planning entry into Russia in 2008 have pulled back since last fall, with no plans to return in the near term. "The economy continues to grow rapidly and the opportunity for individual and private funds which were relatively unaffected by the crisis has only increased in Russia," he stated.

Aleksandr Olhovsky, President of the Guild of Property Managers and Developers and Vice President of Russia"s second largest bank, VTB, said that even in light of the Western crisis, in a recent re-evaluation of their lending portfolio real estate development finance remained at 15% of total, second only to lending in the oil and gas sector. When the crisis hit last fall, VTB raised their debt financing from 12% to 18% as a protection measure, and have subsequently lowered it to a current 15%, loan-to-value ration remaining at 70-30 throughout. On behalf of the Guild, he raised the issues of what would happen to the Russian lending and real estate landscape if commodity prices were to drop from their currently elevated levels, and what will happen with the capital that is currently being held back by the West. "Will Russia remain attractive enough?" He asked. "It is not enough to count on our momentum alone. There are still many important issues we need to address to remain competitive, and the Guild is one vehicle through which such discussions can occur."

"Clearly, these market-makers are continuing to steam ahead in Russia, even in light of the Western liquidity crunch," said Val Jerdes, Director of Advisory for Praktis Consulting and Brokerage. "There are clear advantages of Russia"s financial system having remained less integrated with the West, as well as high commodity prices - but the quesiton of how Russia will profit from the "storm" are critical as we grow our developing market and work out new instruments and approaches."